哎............
继续睡觉...........没戏!
86
``Most members judged that the downside risks to economic activity had diminished a little,'' the Fed said in minutes of its gathering on Oct. 24-25 released in Washington today. ``All members agreed that the risks to achieving the anticipated reduction in inflation remained the greatest concern.''
Fed policy makers are betting that slowing growth will cause inflation to recede. So far, there's little sign of that, as price gains remain almost half a percentage point above Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's preferred zone. Officials are challenged at the same time by a weak housing market which contributed to the slowest pace of expansion in three years.
Fed officials discussed several aspects of the housing market, inflation targeting and the risk of an upward creep in the public's inflation outlook as prices remained above the Fed's preference. The consensus view emerging from the meeting shows that a majority of Fed officials are inclined to raise interest rates if inflation doesn't recede.
``Nearly all participants viewed the current rates of core inflation as uncomfortable high,'' the minutes said. ``Participants were concerned that inflation expectations could begin to drift upwards if core inflation remained elevated for a protracted period.''
One Dissent
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-1 to hold its target for the overnight lending rate between banks at 5.25 percent last month, the third straight pause after 17 increases over two years. Richmond Fed Bank President Jeffrey Lacker dissented in favor of higher rates.
Futures traders expect the benchmark rate to hold at 5.25 percent through March. Fed officials next meet Dec. 12. Economists anticipate that policy makers will lower borrowing costs sometime in the second half of next year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
The minutes suggested that Fed officials are more inclined to boost rates than cut them if inflation doesn't ``ebb gradually'' as they expect.
``All participants emphasized that the risks around the desired downward path to inflation remained to the upside,'' the minutes said. ``Most participants expected core inflation to moderate gradually, but they were quite uncertain as to the likely pace and extent of that moderation.''
Growth Slows
A slumping housing market and a widening trade gap slowed the pace of economic growth to 1.6 percent in the third quarter, the lowest rate since the first quarter of 2003, a government report showed Oct. 27. Residential housing construction fell at an annual rate of 17.4 percent, the biggest decline since 1991. Retail sales fell 0.2 percent in October and were revised lower the prior month, the Commerce Department said yesterday.
While the minutes show Fed officials concluded that the housing market ``did not seem to be spilling over into consumer spending,'' policy makers indicated the housing rout hasn't hit bottom yet.
``Further adjustment in the housing market appeared likely,'' the minutes said. ``Many participants expressed concern that ongoing developments in the housing market could have a more pronounced impact on consumer and other spending.''
Separately, as part of Bernanke's drive to enhance Fed communications with the public, policy makers discussed the merits of announcing a numerical inflation goal, the minutes said. Officials didn't reach any decisions, the minutes showed.
A potential obstacle to specifying a target is avoiding any conflict with the Fed's congressional mandates for maximum employment and moderate long-term interest rates, the Fed said.
Inflation Target
``In that regard, it was noted that over time price stability is a prerequisite'' for the other mandates, the minutes said, repeating a point advanced by Bernanke in his first public speech as chairman last February. The issue ``raised a number of complex and interrelated issues that required considerable further discussion.''
Fed officials will hold a third discussion of communication issues at their Jan. 30-31 meeting, according to the minutes. They previously discussed the issue at the Aug. 8 session. Vice Chairman Donald Kohn is leading a subcommittee on Fed communication that also includes Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern and Janet Yellen, head of the San Francisco Fed.
Rising wages may test the central bank's patience on inflation, which remains faster than the tolerance level indicated by policy makers including Bernanke.
Wage Costs
Workers' average hourly earnings rose 3.9 percent in the 12 months through October after gaining 4.1 percent the previous month, the most since March 2001. The jobless rate fell to a five-year low of 4.4 percent in October.
Consumer prices rose 2.4 percent in the 12-month period ending in September, according to the Fed's preferred gauge, which is tied to household expenditures minus food and energy. The measure has been at or above Bernanke's ``comfort zone'' of 1 percent to 2 percent since April 2004.
The minutes mentioned no possibility of a rate cut. By contrast, policy makers discussed the outlook for future rate hikes if necessary.
A ``significant amount of data'' would be published before the December meeting and the Fed panel had ``ample scope to refine its assessment of the economic outlook before judging whether any additional firming was needed to address those risks,'' the minutes said.
Outside of the decline in housing, there are some signs economic growth may accelerate. Manufacturing in New York state unexpectedly quickened in November to the fastest pace in five months, a New York Fed report showed today.
Lacker dissented ``because he believed that further tightening was needed to help ensure that core inflation declines to an acceptable rate in coming quarters.''
原帖由 wu2198 于 2006-11-16 03:03 发表
哎............
继续睡觉...........没戏!
86
接着睡
原帖由 池塘边 于 2006-11-16 03:03 发表
接着睡
睡吧
去睡了，大家晚安
原帖由 wu2198 于 2006-11-16 03:03 发表
哎............
继续睡觉...........没戏!
86
大家晚安．．．
不是吧？！:red:
都睡啦？！:huh:
good night and good morning later on
美国前财长鲁宾（Robert E. Rubin）表示，美国政府若无法降低预算赤字，可能吓走各国央行、对冲基金以及其它已买进国库券的投资人。令人难以置信的是这种情况还会一直持续下去。
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