 | |  | | well, whatever is happening in Euro is nothing spectacular compared what happened to SPX, DJ, INDU.
In the media, the catching news are Steven Colbert running for president. (well done, Ronald Reagan was once an actor).
The other is the hype about the Oct 19 1987 crash anniversary. Well, today fall is pale in comparison, 2% vs 23%.
Today is option expiration day, the plunge is more of a adjustment. Expect buying to resume into next week.
Euro, Gold makes short adjustment downwards due to reduction in risk appetite.
Hence do not rush to short Euro, GBP, Gold or USDJPY, b'cos the next rally would need to scacrifice the SHORTEES to have the "V" impulse.
Watch out for the FED, they may announce a 50bp cut again to 4.25%. then the interest rate difference between EURO and USD would be negligible. The real monies would switch to EURO if they have not done so. Just see BoJ have been selling its USD treasuries in earnest and fast pace.
The market is forcing FED's hand, with its pseudo meltdown, and then the Big Fish would meet with Ben/Hank askign for action.
Suspect that we may have more action on SPX, INDU, NDX on coming week. Nonetheless we are still in a Bull Trend in Equities, i.e. Euro, Gold.
Now to the topics of Hot Monies, who is the current winner. They are Big Time in the HK and Shanghai market, alternating between the markets. Buy HK, sell Shanghai, then switch buy Shanghai sell HK. Every switch is triggered by some news from the China government, i.e. letting Chinese investing in HK mentioned in July/Aug, till now still no firm schedule, then last week news came out on swapping shares of China stock on HK exchange, then another rally in HK while Shanghai pull backs.
The surprising switches and volume of the monies flow, ambigous news point evidence to slippage of control, or silent participation by individuals/agencies of the China government.
So far this hot monies have not been able to sell convincingly to the retail, b'cos the hot monies are simply too large. instead of cannabalising one another, they may plan a make-believe plunge in the Shanghai market, and then wait for the Chinese government to mop up the equities, and then sell again at height.
Chinese forex reserves are still in large portion USD 60-70%. PBoC, Wu Yi are tricked into holding the USD by the semmingly benigh Hank. While BoJ has been selling agressively. It is a one-up of the Japanese over the Chinese.
The Hot Monies need to realise profits for its owners, honchos the who is who Billionaires, Sovereign Funds, Oil Monies (Saudi, Iran, Russia). Nov/Dec would be a good time to cash out.
what we may see in coming weeks/months are volatility, 1 week of downward moves, 2 weeks of climb.
Hence do not short the market, whether it is Euro or Equities, wait for a CONFIRMATION OF A BOTTOM, then proceed to long. Let the Big Monies do the pushing, and we tag along for a ride.
The Big Fish long position in the China/Asia Equities are humongous, estimated close to 500 billions USD. And with the rising Oil (now at 90), the Fish would grow even bigger. Hence they are predisposed to LONG position, not SHORT. They are getting jittery now on how to take profit, without canabalising one another.
Soon one of the Big Fish turn against them and engineer some capital control on Asian markets. (see what happen to Sensex, 9% plunge in a day). then we would see some Big Fish fried.
The only way the Big Fish can escape the pond, is to engineer some make-belive crisis, to trigger further buying by governments, and then cash out.
Now it is a battle between the Funds and the Governments. As retail, we just stay out and wait on sideline.
Once the uptrend is confirmed, we can participate, ie. once EURO comes back to the 1.4300 handle and stay there convincingly, we buy Euro. If SPX comes back to 1600, we buy, b'cos we are going for a ride towards 1700. DJ towards 16000 in the near future, i.e. EURO going towards 1.4500, Gold towards 850.
Hence stay in coming week, if not take some profits.
As Wallstreet Nostradamus, I say 23 Oct (Tuesday) is the day, a day of violent actions (it can be a up or down by the way).
We may see a spectacular one day 10% drop in SPX/INDU/NDX followed by a similar spectacular rise of 10%.
For the folks on the street, the implication is simple. With the hot monies sloshing around, rises in asset prices, commodities, would trigger a multi-yr of high inflation.
So far some governments, e.g. US, Singapore, HK, Germany can masquerade their official inflation statistics, however they cannot conceal the Inflation Expectation of their citizens. Expect more strikes to happen in Europe/US for workers asking for higher compensation. We would see next yr as a important yr of labour unrest. With ECB holding on interest rate, we would see dimished ability to counter the rising oil, hence higher inflation, especially in France. With Sakorzy's overhaul, we would see more street fights, strikes spilling onto streets, much like the 200-2003.
Geopolictics is coming to the forefront. I have written about the collapse of the US power in MiddleEast. Look, soon after US announce troop reduction (b'cos of media hype on success over AlQaeda), Turkey is considering an invasion of Iraq. (remember Turkey is a member of NATO).
Russian is now openly siding Iran. and Iran is soon going to announce possession of the first nuclear weapon. Bhutto return to Pakistan only would galvanise all the radical elements into action.
(American media can hype and influence the equities markets, but they are powerless against the radical muslims, or for that matter, the American media becomes the tools of the radical muslims)
these are jusrt preludes to the 3rd world war. Well the market can choose to collapse before the war comes, or when the war comes. It is going to be a Cold Freeze, when world assets would tumble, wealth reduce by half. USD probably to 1.8. Gold to 1000. Mr Yen Sakibara has talked about the plunge of USD next yr, while Alan Greenspan says that the exodus of US treasuries have no effect on USD
Having seen Pelosi, Bush flanking Dalai Lama when he receives the Congressional medal, reminds me of sinister signal on the joint attack on the Beijing Butchers. A Bipartisan, capitalist synchronisation of manoevres on the butcher, to deplete them of their monies. A financially weaker butcher would stop its rise for a couple of yrs. This may happen in coming months.
My guess is that the Big Fish would push the market onto the cliff in a parabolic Wave 5 move in all markets. Expect Oil to go into 100 by the end of this year.
WHATEVER, STAY OUT. |  |  |  |  |
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发表于 2007-10-23 22:14
发表于 2007-10-24 05:45
头晕
