美日的涨法绝对不简单
一周外汇市场技术解盘（3.24—3.31）
欧元大幅反弹
中国社会科学院经济学博士发展研究中心 中国未来研究会中小企业委员会 赵燕京
（图表截止至2003年3月31日6：40）
日前公布的经济数据显示，日本2月结关后贸易顺差按年增长20.4%至9362亿日元；出口增长7.6%至4.33万亿日元，为连续11个月增长；进口增长4.5%至3.39万亿日元，为连续6个月增长。日本2月全国零售销售年率下降0.2%，虽为连续第23个月下降，但仍是两年来最好的表现。日本2月失业率为5.2%。日本2月份全国核心 CPI未修正月率下降0.1%，年率下降0.7%。上周，日本央行会议决定，进一步放松银根，向短期资金市场投放追加资金——从目前的17至20万亿日元提高到25万亿日元，并增加收购大型金融机构持有的上市公司股票——从原来的2万亿日元提高到3万亿日元，以减轻伊拉克战争对日本经济的影响，维护金融体系稳定。
美国谘商会3月消费信心指数跌至62.5，为1993年10月以来最低。美国2月耐用品订单下降1.2%至1702亿美元。美国2月成屋销售年率为584万户，按月下降4.3%。美国2月新屋销售较上月下降8.1%，年率为85.4万户，为2000年8月以来的最低水平，使本已疲弱的美国经济雪上加霜。美国3月22日当周初请失业金人数减少2.5万人至40.2万；3月15日当周续请失业金人数减少7000人至352.1 万。美联储官员表示，由于美国经济前景存在不确定性，美联储将通过调低利率等货币政策手段，竭力支持经济的复苏。美国3月密歇根大学消费信心指数由2月的 79.9降至77.6，为1993年8月以来的最低水平。
欧元区1月份出口为814亿欧元，进口为829亿欧元，分别比上月增加了1.0％和3.6％，也为2001年4月份以来首次出现贸易赤字。2002年欧元区的出口总计为10731亿欧元，进口为9704亿欧元，贸易盈余达 1027亿欧元，远远超过了2001年的497亿欧元。欧洲央行高官分别表示，在战争形势没有完全明朗前不宜轻举妄动。一旦观察到宏观经济趋势的变化，货币政策会相应变化。战争如果造成商业和消费者信心崩溃，欧洲央行有可能下调利率。
国际货币基金组织IMF指出，国际金融市场较之 6个月前充满更多风险，伊拉克战争可能导致石油价格上涨，经济增长迟缓，挫伤投资者和消费者的信心，使全球经济复苏面临更大威胁。“由于存在着地缘政治持续不稳定和恐怖威胁切实存在的可能，即便是武装冲突短期内结束，不稳定仍将继续下去。”如果伊拉克战争拖延下去，那么不能排除全球经济进入衰退的可能。
美元/日元
上周，汇价震荡盘跌，周最高价121.31，周最低价119.35，周升跌率-1.521%，周收盘119.75。本周，汇价有望下探支撑后震荡盘升。本周初，短线有望在119.30-120.00区间震荡整理。汇价若站稳于120.00之上，则有向120.60方向运行的趋势，继续上破则短线向多；汇价若回落于119.30之下，则有下破整数位119.00向30日均线118.60方向寻求支撑的趋势。119.30与120.60分别为汇价短线向空与向多的分界线。118.10与120.30分别为周线指标向空与向多的分界线。市场对汇价声东击西的突破方式以及日本央行入市干预的可能性保持警惕。
本周强压力121.70，弱压力120.70；强支撑118.00，弱支撑119.00。
欧元/美元
上周，欧元震荡盘升，周最高价1.0799，周最低价1.0564，周升跌率2.471%，周收盘1.0781。本周，汇价有望震荡盘升后受阻回落整理。本周初，汇价若站稳于1.0720之上，则有上探上周五高点1.0799一线压力的趋势，且不排除继续上破、上探1.0800-1.0850区域压力的可能；若受压回落于1.0720之下，则下挡1.0650、1.0590有支撑。1.0590、1.0710与1.0720、1.0850分别为汇价日线、周线向空与向多的分界线。波浪与比率分析显示，若暂定汇价自3月11日日高1.1084至3月21日日低1.4998为A波下跌，共运行8个交易日，3月 21日日低至3月28日日高1.0799为B波反弹，共运行5个交易日，反弹幅度为费波纳奇位0.5强，仍属弱势反弹，其后，可能出现时空转换或继续盘升 3个交易日，目标在费波纳奇0.618位即1.0840-1.0860附近，也可能由此进入C波下跌。
本周强压力1.0950，弱压力1.0850；强支撑1.0600，弱支撑1.0700。
英镑/美元
上周，英镑震荡盘升，周最高价1.5795，周最低价1.5604，周升跌率0.691%，周收盘1.5733。本周，汇价有望盘升受阻回落整理。本周初，汇价若站稳于1.5720之上，则有上探上周五高点1.5777一线压力的趋势，且不排除继续上破、上探30日均线附近1.5830一线压力的可能；若受压回落于1.5720之下，则下挡支撑位于1.5680、1.5650，继续下破则短线向空。1.5650与1.5720分别为汇价短线向空与向多的分界线。
本周强压力1.5930，弱压力1.5830；强支撑1.5600，弱支撑1.5700。
人民网北京3月31日讯
PandoraBox：
Senior Member
Few years ago, during GJ spike from 240 to 250.....all stupid news talking about 260.
Same as EU, when EU hit 1.6 on July 2008, stupid Currency Analyse talking about 1.7.
They throw stupid news, just to manipulate the market sentiment.
Now it happen again.
They have hidden agenda.
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3w.bloomberg.com/video/61919740/
Greenspan Says Double-Dip Recession in U.S. Is Possible
Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the slowing economic recovery in the U.S. feels like a “quasi-recession” and the economy might contract again if home prices decline. Bloomberg's Peter Cook reports.
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Sakakibara Says Yen May Rise to Record Against Dollar by End of This Year
By Yasuhiko Seki - Aug 15, 2010 9:01 AM GMT+0800
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Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said the yen may rise to a record 79.75 against the U.S. dollar due to concerns over the health of the U.S. economy.
“What we are seeing is not appreciation of the yen but weakness of the dollar, reflecting concerns that the U.S. economy may falter,” Sakakibara said on the Fuji television network. “There is a chance the yen will reach an all-time high and stay at that level for the time being.”
The yen peaked at 79.75 to the dollar in April 1995.
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he’s “concerned” about the recent appreciation of the yen, Kyodo News reported yesterday. Kan spoke at a hotel in a mountain resort in central Japan’s Nagano prefecture.
Kan and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa may meet this week to discuss measures to address the yen’s strength, the Asahi newspaper reported on Aug. 13, without citing anyone. The currency reached 84.73 to the dollar on Aug. 11, the strongest since July 1995.
“Japanese companies will feel the pinch of a stronger yen and a weakness in share prices around the end of this year,” Sakakibara said.
Sakakibara became known as “Mr. Yen” during his 1997-1999 tenure at the Ministry of Finance for his efforts to influence the yen’s exchange rate through verbal and actual intervention in the currency market.
He correctly predicted in November 2008 that the yen would strengthen beyond 90 to the dollar because of the banking crisis. Sakakibara is now a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo.
To contact the reporter on this story: Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo a
没什么心意，大多数人都是错的
写得不错，顶一个。学习了。
关于美日，估计看多的人一定不少，超多看空的人。
但是反方理由也很充分：趋势还是下降趋势，跌势不言底啊！84也不是没可能
日元，的确是个难啃的骨头！也许现在最佳的策略是;
wait
估计，不多时日了
8月19日 22:00 美国7月谘商会领先指标月率 低 -0.2% 0.1% 0.1
8月19日 22:00 美国8月费城联储制造业指数 高 5.1 7.5 -7.7
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两个商品大跌， 美国经济完蛋，原油，有色等资源肯定受影响。
日元，瑞郎涨，但是好似强弩之末，涨的没劲。避险功能提现了
两个欧系先涨后跌。
今晚的高潮基本这样了，而后要看美股的走势了
楼主,美瑞怎么看呀.1.05的多单现在套的深了.不知道什么时候才能再上到上面了