JPY突破83，是时候干预了？
本帖最后由 ForexGG 于 2010-9-14 17:17 编辑JPY突破83，是时候干预了？
JPY Breaks 83: Time for Intervention?
Prime Minister Kan won the elections last night and Yen traders have interpreted his victory to mean a more relaxed approach towards intervention. This may be true when compared to the pro-intervention stance of Ozawa (his challenger) but the rapid appreciation in the Yen against the U.S. dollar AND the Chinese Yuan has also made Kan more likely to intervene in the currency. Even if he was not actively considering physical intervention to weaken the Yen before the elections, he will have warmed to idea when he wakes up in the morning and finds USD/JPY trading below 83. （这句有意思）
Yen Strong Against the Dollar and Yuan
Although we are all focusing on the USD/JPY rate, which is trading at its weakest level since April 1995, the Yen is also trading at a record high against the Chinese Yuan despite the fact that Yuan has reached a record high against the U.S. dollar. The recent strength of the Yuan increases the pressure on Japanese government to intervene in the Yen because it reduces the competitiveness of products made in Japanese over China.
USD/JPY Tracking Yields
USD/JPY is also breaking down because U.S. yields continue to fall. Goldman Sachs made the bold call this morning that the Fed could announce additional asset purchases in November and it is having a significant impact on the financial markets. The retail sales number also failed to make U.S. investors more optimistic about the recovery.
At this point there is no major support in USD/JPY until its record low of 79.75.
Time for Intervention?
However I don’t think that the Japanese government will let USD/JPY fall to its record low of 79.75 without intervening. I have been skeptical of calls for intervention since July when USD/JPY fell from 88 down to 83.00. However, everyone has a bottom line, or a point at which they will eventually cry uncle, and for Japan, this level should be around 80, right above the currency pair’s 15-year low. Never before had the Japanese government let USD/JPY fall below 79.75, which was not only the April 1995 low, but also the record low. 日本政府从没有UJ跌过79.75. Now that USD/JPY has fallen below 83, the risk of intervention has increased ten fold and I expect that we’ll go from empty threats to a real battle against yen strength. USD/JPY has now entered the intervention territory which is between 82 and 79.75 and the Bank of Japan could come into the market at anytime. Anyone who is long the Yen needs to be very careful. 现在U/J跌破83，干预的风险已经10倍多了，越来越会把口头的付诸实际。现在U/J已经进入干预的范围，并且BOJ随时可能干预。JPY的多头需要十分小心。
The latest CFTC data shows that long yen positions are near record highs, which is exactly what the BoJ likes to see before they intervene in the currency because it provides the best bang for the buck as the stopping out of these short positions will exacerbate the rally in USD/JPY. CFTC的数据表明，JPY的多头达到历史高点，这恰恰是BOJ在干预之前所希望看到的，这会使得干预的效果最大化，通过打掉这些UJ空头的止损。 BoJ就像是在钓鱼。
等JPY多头积攒到一定程度，还不能把他们放跑了。这个也挺难的。 干预有难度 83.00止损 :loveliness:希望日本干预市场，最好小日本到85或86更高 日本政府已经干预过了 個人看法是干預只會提供日圓多頭更好進場的點位,不過干預是一定會出現的,只是時機要看日本央行自己認為的點。還有歷史上日本央行的干預從沒成功過,大趨勢還是繼續往日圓升值方向走的,可以去看日圓30年的月線走勢你就會明白我說的。日圓定會再有機會到85-87之間,可能因為干預或突發事件引起。不過最終還是改變不了升值的大趨勢,個人目標先看79最後是60,這會是一段漫長的過程,現在才剛起了頭。 说干预就干预了。真准。看来是Prime Minister Kan 起床后看不对劲。赶快！:D 小日本很是猖狂。。。。。 消息一出就被反应了