Surprise, surprise - US savings rate lowest since Sept 2009
FX: Pre-positioning for Next Week?
The rally in the greenback reflects the market's concern that European officials will not deliver a grand master plan to save the euro next week.We started the week off with a nice dose of optimism but as the days progressed and European officials failed to admit that a deal is in the works, the rally in the euro hit a brick wall.This morning, the euro is lower against the U.S. dollar as investors cut back on their long positions ahead of the Ecofin and ECB meetings next week. Given the track record of European policymakers, there is a good chance they will drag their heels and forgo announcing a rescue plan for Europe to the disappointment of investors.Add to that the concerns about the possibility of an ECB rate cut and weaker German retail sales numbers and we can understand why the euro and other high yielding currencies have weakened against the greenback.
It mattered little that personal income declined 0.1 percent in August and personal spending growth slowed to 0.2 percent.Investors have come to expect weaker U.S. economic data and given the weakness of the labor market and decline in retail sales, the surprise would have been stronger and not weaker data.The decline in the personal savings rate to lowest level since September 2009 also reflects the deterioration in wealth in America and the country's inherent social and economic problems. Chicago PMI and the final University of Michigan Consumer Confidence reports will be released later this morning.We do not expect these numbers to have a material impact on the U.S. dollar because unless we have a major upward revision to confidence and a jump in manufacturing activity in Chicago, the Federal Reserve could still increase stimulus.
With 4 central banks holding monetary policy announcements next week, the dollar could rally as investors position for a more dovish stance from the central banks.The latest GDP numbers from Canada showed the country's economy growing by 0.3 percent, a slightly faster pace than the previous month which may alleviate some of the Bank of Canada's concerns about their economic outlook, but considering that this data is from July, it is quite dated.
本帖最后由 ForexGG 于 2011-9-30 07:40 编辑
GG，美加的单现在怎么样处理呀？继续拿吗？突破了1。04了是不是要朝1。07去了？
deeplane 发表于 2011-9-30 02:11 http://www.y2.cn/images/common/back.gif
我继续拿。。做空美加的时候。其他的你没有做空EURUSD，NZDUSD吗？ 至少这两个对冲单，不会让你亏损多少。欧元，我从4139之下，再也没做多过。一直在空。
翻翻我以前说过的，鸡蛋不要放在一个篮子里。不要学我们的外储。
我养的是一群土鸡，你养的是金鸡。当然她不下蛋，你会很担心，很担心。但是下一个，就是金蛋。:D
我只要每天有土鸡蛋吃就高兴。
EUR breaking lower bc of 1) Expectations of no action from EZ Fin Min mtg Monday 2) +USD month end rebalancing 3) Wk GE retail sales
Very strong Chicago PMI 60.4 vs. 55
EU,1.34今晚难保?
FX: Pre-positioning for Next Week?
The rally in the greenback reflects the market's concern that...
ForexGG 发表于 2011-9-30 21:09 http://www.y2.cn/images/common/back.gif
{:1_97:}
NZDUSD是配合空单做的对冲单，EURNZD是配合NZDUSD的交叉盘。最近也是刚刚开发好两个EA，这两个联合做。 ...
ForexGG 发表于 2011-9-30 07:11 http://www.y2.cn/images/common/back.gif
{:1_97:} 实盘对GG来说是没有意思
我继续拿。。做空美加的时候。其他的你没有做空EURUSD，NZDUSD吗？ 至少这两个对冲单，不会让你亏 ...
ForexGG 发表于 2011-9-30 21:37 http://www.y2.cn/images/common/back.gif
我只做欧美，可惜还没能下金蛋[:2-121:]
EG 8593 多 0.04手，目标 8630 -- 8646 留3单