TECHNICALS OR FUNDAMENTALS?

	If you've been around the forex trading world for a while, you know that there is this constant war going on among traders who use technical analysis and traders who use fundamental analysis.  The techs usually say that it's impossible to trade on the news, because the market moves so fast, and the fundamentalists say that only the news move the market and trying to predict it by looking at some charts and indicators is just silly.  Who is right and who is wrong?  Let's try to let go of opinions and beliefs, and use logic to analyze both sides of this argument. Let's go to the basics.  What moves the forex market?  It's people's speculations that move the market!  The news don't move the market, and the graphs don't move the market!  It's people speculating on those news and people speculating on those graphs is what moves the forex market!  When 9/11 happened, the dollar went down, not because 9/11 happened!  The dollar went down because everyone thought that everyone else will be selling their dollars, so everyone sold the dollars, therefore the dollar went down.  When a bunch of traders are looking at the graphs, and they see a head and shoulders pattern signifying that the EUR/USD pair will go down after the price breaks the neck line,  EUR/USD doesn't plummet down because of that graph pattern!  EUR/USD plummets down because everybody recognizes that pattern, and they think that everyone will go short on the Euro at the neck break, so everyone goes short, in hopes that everyone else will go short as well, and it creates this price effect!   Here is the real question...  How much money is traded based on fundamentals, and how much money is traded on the technical analysis?  As far as I know, most big banks, hedge funds, and other big financial institutions trade mostly fundamentally.  Obviously those financial institutions have most of world's money, so when they place their trades, the market moves accordingly.  With fundamentals, it's pretty clear cut, if the report is better than expected for a specific country, that currency goes up, if it's worse, that currency goes down.  What about technicals?  It's pretty obvious that most of technical traders and individual traders don't have a whole lot of money, even altogether.  It's also pretty obvious that there are more than 100 different indicators, and at any given time, some are showing up and others are showing down.  How do you trade that?  I guess look at the most popular indicators, and look for confluence of events, only sell when most of them show sell, or mostly buy when most of them show buy.  And only do it, when there are no important news coming out.   Most other technical analysis gurus, try to impress you with some fancy new indicator that they developed themselves, and obviously most people who trade with it lose money, simply because nobody else is using that indicator, so the market doesn't respect what that indicator says.

	借用小平先生的一句名言: 不管黑猫,白猫, 能捉到耗子的就是好猫! 无论是什么推动了市场, 基本面也好, 技术图表也好,人们的投机心理也好, 只要你可以利用金融工具来获利赚钱, 无论你用的是什么方法, 那一定是有用的方法. 相信你自己的方法并利用它来赚钱,比和其他人争论谁的方法更"合理", 要来的更加实际. 不用理会别人的方法, 无论他是大的银行,金融机构,还是著名的分析家或者交易者, 只要你自己的方法能赚钱, 它对于你就是唯一最合理的方法.