如果有时间,请大家认真读读这篇文章

	GAIN CAPITAL  The Week Ahead Monday, January 16, 2006 - Friday, January 20, 2006 What to look for in the week ahead Yet another week of sideways consolidation for the dollar against other major currencies, and the choppiness is beginning to fray market nerves, or at least traders’ patience. The week began with a scandal-driven meltdown in Japanese stocks There were multiple speakers from the Fed this week and they all stuck to the same line: US growth remains solid; inflation pressures are contained, but it’s too soon to rule out a resurgence of inflationary pressures emanating from the energy sector (or a tightening labor market); one more rate hike is coming, but after that it will be data dependent. Oil did its part to underscore the theme of energy price inflation, trading up $4.25 on the week to $68.30/bbl, but it had help from the geopolitical sphere. The standoff with Iran over its efforts to resume its nuclear development started the move, and there appears to be no quick settlement in store on the diplomatic front. However, the fundamental basis (Iranian oil supplies will be taken off the market in one form or another) is somewhat suspect, since the Iranians will presumably do everything they can to keep their primary source of revenue flowing. Warmer weather in the US northeast and inventories well above seasonal averages also suggest the oil price gains seen this week will be short-lived. Losses below $65.50 should start the decline Price movements in oil have taken on added significance since the Fed has gone out of its way to indicate that incoming data will be the deciding factor on US interest rate moves. As long as oil prices are high or rising, inflationary pressures will remain elevated, and the prospect of further Fed tightening increases, and this keeps a floor under the US dollar. If energy prices stage a reversal, the dollar could suddenly find the floor dropping out from under it. While I remain of the view that the US economy is still quite buoyant and that the Fed will hike at least two more times (Jan. 31 and Mar. 28), overall market sentiment is distinctly dollar-bearish. Therefore, I anticipate that the US dollar will ultimately break out of the current sideways consolidation to the downside. There are other factors at work here too, such as China allowing the Yuan to stage its largest gain since the July revaluation (contributing to general dollar weakness), geopolitical events/risks with a dollar-negative cast; political scandals in Washington; and renewed terrorist threats, just to name a few Although I now expect the dollar to ratchet lower out of the current consolidation range, I don’t expect it to be the start of a new trend, but rather the beginning of a brief period of USD weakness as the market releases the pent up energy of two weeks of sideways trading. I would then expect the dollar to form a base by mid-February as January and February economic data filter into the market on the strong side, reigniting the prospects for a March 28 Fed rate hike. The key levels to watch remain: EUR/USD 1.2200/1.2000; USD/JPY 113.50/115.50; USD index 88.50/89.70.