When will the CAD rally end?

Given that the USDCAD continues to set fresh multi-decade lows, I thought it worthwhile to revisit overall trader sentiment to gauge the likelihood of reversal.

Long story short: don't bet on it just yet

Below you will see a chart of SSI positioning on the USDCAD. Long orders currently outweigh shorts at a ratio of nearly 6:1, as 85% of traders are currently long the USDCAD. Though the SSI is a contrarian indicator, retail speculators often predict major turns in very extreme positioning conditions. As it stands, however, the USDCAD seems primed for further declines.

Taking a look at the first chart below, USDCAD positioning reached extremes of a 10:1 SSI ratio before making a substantive turn in September and June, 2006.

From a COT Positioning perspective (second chart below), you can read what Jamie Saettele had to say:


Quote:
CAD: Speculators continue to build longs in the CAD but positioning is now extreme to the long side as evidenced by the percentile indicator being above 90. Historically, the trend will continue for a few more weeks before the percentile indicator rolls over from above 90 and a top is in place. While the bulk of the CAD move is most likely over, it is unlikely that a significant (multi-month) low is in place at 1.0776.


From a technical perspective, trying to find worthwhile USDCAD support rather difficult. We essentially have to look at prices from over 30 years ago to find points of previous reversal. We may look to the 1.0400-1.0450 as the last speed bump before we head to parity. The zone marks the peak seen in 1975 and March, 1997 lows.

[ 本帖最后由 ForexGG 于 2007-6-1 15:34 编辑 ]

about one month

谁麻烦翻译一下噢，我小学没毕业

目前的比例和形态看 至少 1，230附近跌破 1，0050

[ 本帖最后由 cci 于 2007-6-2 10:20 编辑 ]

原帖由 cci 于 2007-6-2 10:17 发表
目前的比例和形态看 至少 1，0230附近跌破 1，0050

而且很长时间难于翻转 除非油价暴跌一定程度或者 canada基本面出现重大利空

[ 本帖最后由 cci 于 2007-6-2 10:19 编辑 ]

as 85% of traders are currently long the USDCAD...

RETAIL的POSITION有意义吗？券商三年不开张，开张吃三年。在这种行情，券商根本不在期市去HEDGE RETAIL的LONG POSITION，而是坐在监控前数着猜着今天会有哪些RETAIL ACCOUNT暴仓。券商也是人，也得吃饭、发奖金呀。大家在平台上看到的价格是从CME GLOBEX 期货价格中算出来的，所以在大行情中，RETAIL的POSITION没有意义。