突击金融海啸(100单征途II)

	中国切勿急于扮演英雄救美的角色。中国现已承受与日俱增的美元资产风险，断无理由贸然再增负荷。救美的经济成本甚大，更要慎防被卷入漩涡：美国积患极深而必须完成历史性调整，对此中国实帮不上很大的忙，若轻率涉足其中或可能陷入日深，并危及本身安全。中国必须把珍贵资源首先用于自保，以维持稳定高速发展。同时要有远见，为未来在大劫后重建世界金融经济新秩序作好准备。

	原帖由 wu2198 于 2008-10-8 16:45 发表                                 登录/注册后可看大图 中国切勿急于扮演英雄救美的角色。中国现已承受与日俱增的美元资产风险，断无理由贸然再增负荷。救美的经济成本甚大，更要慎防被卷入漩涡：美国积患极深而必须完成历史性调整，对此中国实帮不上很大的忙，若轻率涉足 ... 这个倒是同感，中国的那些不良资产也应该做止损，不要考虑全面拯救

	原帖由 wu2198 于 2008-10-8 16:45 发表                                 登录/注册后可看大图 中国切勿急于扮演英雄救美的角色。中国现已承受与日俱增的美元资产风险，断无理由贸然再增负荷。救美的经济成本甚大，更要慎防被卷入漩涡：美国积患极深而必须完成历史性调整，对此中国实帮不上很大的忙，若轻率涉足 ...

	原帖由 美金菜鸟 于 2008-10-8 16:47 发表                                 登录/注册后可看大图 这个倒是同感，中国的那些不良资产也应该做止损，不要考虑全面拯救 小熊不要总跳.看得我眼花了.

	原帖由 wu2198 于 2008-10-8 16:45 发表                                 登录/注册后可看大图 中国切勿急于扮演英雄救美的角色。中国现已承受与日俱增的美元资产风险，断无理由贸然再增负荷。救美的经济成本甚大，更要慎防被卷入漩涡：美国积患极深而必须完成历史性调整，对此中国实帮不上很大的忙，若轻率涉足 ... 相信令计划、王沪宁等高参会给胡哥当好参谋的！

	这次是中国转强的一个大好时机啊h:

	人不为已.........

	For those who are speculating the bottom. I feel it's probably better to know that there is an eager waiting on the time bomb - CDS now. No one knows what the scale of the crisis. It's as big as 64 trillion USD. This is a totally unregulated market with a sheer size that can cause a chain reaction. This Thursday, there will be an auction on Lehman's loads, with a notional value of 400 billion, valued some thing around 10 cents on the dollar. The size of CDS contract on Lehman is not know. If it is as big as the loan, then the sellers will have to find 360 billion to settle. In September, there are quite some naked CDS bought against Lehman speculating its default . Fed is trying to set up a CDS clearing house with the help from the big banks. You can find this in News. If Lehman's auction goes well, then there will be a relief on the market especially money market. 2F 's auction was done on Monday, with a recovering rate of 91-99.5 cents on the dollar, the outstanding CDS settlement was aorund 20 billions. That was not a catastrophic figure. But there is a lots of uncertainty about Lehman' s CDS settlements now. Another auction on WaMu's loan is on 22 Oct. It is the next window to gain some insight about the potential danger of CDS. FYI: The largest sellers of CDS are MS, Deutsche, GS, JPM, UBS, LEH, Barclays, Cit, CSFB (2005). The largest hour reference bodies are GM, Ford, Brazil and Chrysler (as end of 2005 I dont have newer data). Be careful when you predicting the bottom -- unless you have taken what I said into account.

	救不了，没得救。