GFT Daily Market Commentary

逍遥子 · 发表于 2003-7-14 19:23

The dollar rose during the past week and this strength should continue on Monday. It is very close to breaking new ground for its uptrend versus the European currencies but the dollar/yen is likely to lag in both direction and volatility. The US has a rich calendar of events this week but it will only start on Tuesday.

Euro/dollar
The pair finally managed to break the support from the 60-day moving average on a closing basis, turning it into resistance. Support now comes at 1.1256, and a break lower would target the 100-day moving average at around 1.1221. This is a pivotal support. Below 1.1200, good support only emerges between 1.1100 and 1.1080.

Resistance is first seen at 1.1350. Good resistance is then seen at 1.1407 from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April 7 – May 27 uptrend. A break higher would invite a test of the 60-day moving average at around 1.1500.



Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM:  Slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM:  Mixed to lightly bearish

LONG-TERM:  Slightly bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen is likely to swerve aimlessly.

Below 117.37, the pair will test the support at 117.15. A break lower would call for a test of the 116.85 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Further supports are seen at 116.52 and 116.33.

Key resistance is again the 118.25 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 117.75 and 118.75.  Above 118.80, there is strong resistance from the 119.65 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 119.15 and 120.15.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish

MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar is week near its 8-week low of 1.6215. The pair faces pivotal support between 1.6180 and 1.6200.

Below this area, sterling/dollar will face support at 1.6130. A break lower would then challenge 1.6070. Further supports are at 1.6033, 1.6014, 1.5993, 1.5959 and 1.5901.

If the 1.6180-1.6200 area holds, then look for resistance at 1.6355.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc remains firm after shooting up to an 11-week high of 1.3786 last Tuesday and after reaching the target of an inverted head-and-shoulders formation at 1.3725.

Above 1.3786, resistance is seen at around 1.3858 from the 200-day moving average. A break higher would suggest a move up toward 1.4000.  Good resistance is then seen between 1.4078 and 1.4084.  .

Immediate support comes at 1.3715.  A move lower would suggest 1.3660. A break below this level would call for a test at 1.3583.

Oscillators are rising.

SHORT-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish