British Pound: Will it Break the Range?

	For the past four trading days, the British pound has been stuck in a 200 pip range against the U.S. dollar and a 115 pip range against the Euro. However the bottom of the range in both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD have been broken, leading currency traders to wonder if the larger range will be tested as well. For the GBP/USD, this would be a break of the 1.6750 or 1.60 level and for EUR/GBP, the levels to watch are 85 and 87 cents. Despite the 1 percent drop in the EUR/USD today, the GBP/USD has been relatively unchanged. One month GBP/USD volatilities have fallen to the lowest level since September 2008. Such a sharp contraction in volatility usually suggests that a breakout is imminent. The only question is, in which direction. Here are some sound arguments in favor of an upside or downside breakout. Arguments for upside breakout in GBP/USD - Housing market continues to show signs of stabilization, house prices rise for first time in 2009 - Break of 86 cents in EUR/GBP could lead to GBP buying - Ascending triangle formation - Moving averages are in “perfect order” which favor a new uptrend Arguments for downside breakout in GBP/USD - Risk appetite is waning, which could drag all of the higher yielding currencies lower - U.K. Banks could be set for losses as clock ticks on GBP300bn commercial property loans - Q2 GDP was very weak - Risk of Bank of England increasing asset purchase program - GBP/USD breaks 4 day low Given the arguments, we believe that the chances of a downside breakout is greater than an upside one. Based upon the following chart, a break of near term support should come soon at which point, the next level or support or resistance would be the highs and lows of the past 2 months.

	希望bb能快点下了,深套中

	希望bb能快点下了,深套中 redstone08 发表于 2009-7-31 06:28                                 登录/注册后可看大图 早啊

	Thanks  a lot

	thanx!英镑当前仍处于区间盘整当中，是巩固还是筑顶？需要等破位才能明确了。

	看完报导 仍是50-50% 谢谢分享

	希望是下！

	美指日线示意图如下： 下降三角形通常的情况是向下破位。