Really doubt whether or not Japan will intervene the FX market.

	Just look at SNB this year. countertrend. now what? If Japan does intervene, its purpose may not be appreciation of the yen. As the CHF and JPY pairs both have fallen below the historic low point, I was forced the short EUR/CHF and USD/JPY, but with much caution. Looking forward what Japan gonna do. Maybe this time massive intervene will be much stronger and lasting than SNB.

	你发的贴已经恢复了，可能是全英文的原因所以要审核！

	英文没过，看晕了。

	只要看看瑞士央行今年。反趋势。现在该怎么办？ 如果日本不介入，其目的可能不是日元升值。 由于瑞士法郎和日元对双方都低于历史最低点下降了，我被迫短期欧元/瑞郎和美元/日元，但极为审慎。 展望日本能做什么。也许这一次大规模的干预将大大加强和瑞士央行比持久。

	你发的贴已经恢复了，可能是全英文的原因所以要审核！ 游枷利叶 发表于 2010-8-25 00:56                                 登录/注册后可看大图     感谢！

	前段时间在欧瑞上吃大亏了。

	前段时间在欧瑞上吃大亏了。 solars 发表于 2010-8-25 09:02                                 登录/注册后可看大图     吃亏的人应该不在少数。 The Swiss franc has hit a fresh record high against the euro in New York trading Wednesday, pushing the single currency under its previous all-time low of CHF1.2973. The euro hit a low of CHF1.2971, according to trading system EBS via CQG, below its previous low charted in early hours Wednesday. The Swiss National Bank is considered unlikely to step into the market and buy euros in an effort to bring down the franc, whose strength threatens exports and could generate deflation by making import prices cheaper. A heavy-duty program of euro buying by the SNB earlier this year failed to prevent the franc from soaring, although it may have limited the scale of the franc's ascent.

	The cycle gurus gave us a peek behind the curtain on their current thoughts on EUR as once again their weekly missive will focus elsewhere. They informed their clients last night that EUR/USD should hold above 1.2610 today and they see the next few days as a rebound cycle, initial resistance 1.2755 which is seen as key. If it breaks they reckon we could test 1.2900 ish. They are hoping for such a bounce to sell into cautioning "The cycles strongly argue that the single currency has begun a downtrend lasting a minimum of several months so our strategy is to use any strength seen to sell for the next leg of the downtrend." They note that if we break above 1.2755 it increases the risk of a Euro rally until Labor Day, but feel that the likelihood is that it will crest sooner, either this Friday or next Monday. Their targets are "1.2485 area at a minimum around the middle of next week and can possibly fall to as low as 1.2330." They remain bearish overall and concur with us that a return to 1.1875/1.1900 is the primary objective for the next big down move. Our black box contacts feel that given their augurs it is likely to run sooner and faster than the market is prepared for and see 1.2000 coming up quickly. The gurus noted finally "The longer-term cycles call for this overall weakness to persist into early next year and it is likely to approach parity. " Our stuff tells us that the 11-wk M/A at 1.2750 has ceded and that we should be heading lower as the average weekly cycle for much of the last 20 years was 11 weeks, a long cycle was 13-weeks and as that is a Fibo number we track that too, that comes in at 1.2639 and looks set to bounce as the gurus predict. They caution us that the average cycle length has been moving out over recent years so the 11-wk cycle may not be quite as effective. This is what makes cycle analysis soooo difficult and vexing for us laymen. It appears that we need a weekly close below the 13-wk M/A to confirm the downtrend is in full swing. Spot last 1.2650. 呵呵，EUR 如果under 2750. 很快1.20，，，甚至1.0

	以后WSJ来的东西也翻译一下再贴给我们看撒，好让我们这些没喝过洋墨水的也进步进步

	以后WSJ来的东西也翻译一下再贴给我们看撒，好让我们这些没喝过洋墨水的也进步进步 没事转转 发表于 2010-8-26 06:14                                 登录/注册后可看大图     哈哈，学习一下英文，不就多掌握了一门工具？ 虽然需要一个过程。有个工具，想做啥就做啥。 授之以鱼，不如授之以渔