汇市展望与交易策略[0327--0331]

	连载 汇市展望与交易策略，只供学习研究用，不做建议。

	上周由于核心消费者物价指数结果上升，重新燃起美联储对通货膨胀的恐惧,未来继续采取紧缩政策的可能性较大， USD得到消息后早于预期时间大幅攀升。上周中期公布的2月现存房屋销售上涨5.2%，打破了自05年8月以来该数据未曾上涨的记录。然而，数据似乎与房市稳步下跌的过程相反常，而且销量的增长很大程度上归功于1月温暖的气候。周五发布的2月新屋销售下跌10%，再次确认了USD的基本趋势。同时，房屋库存上升到历史高位，待售现存房屋库存保持5.3的月度水平，开创自98年8月以来新高，说明尽管2月现存房屋销售数据良好，但总体房屋需求仍在减慢。可喜的是房地产市场虽然发展速度减慢，但并没有崩溃的迹象，这对2006下半年及 2007年房市前景有重要的指导意义。 上周汇价波动显示主要市场参与者，最典型的即日本机构投资者的投资兴趣大幅下降，伴随日本财政年度结束（3月末）市场交易量陡减。市场信息显示周四USD大幅回升是受前几周USD下跌、USD投机卖盘被迫止损买进的影响。美指方面，截止上周四USD由前几周跌势回调76.4%，之后周五又下行回调这一过程的38.2%，那些根据艾略特波浪理论建仓的交易者应该有不错的收益。尽管市场仍有一定交投，但美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议以前的几周市场主要保持频繁的区间交易， 目前也是如此。美指收于90.00,刚好位于两周前91.15高位及上周88.85低位的正中间，为FOMC利率决议发布以后市场迅速反应做好准备，一种可能性是“实际货币”重新流入市场，触发USD实质性增长。   但在预期今年区间状态即将结束之前，有必要权衡一下方程式的两端——经济增长及通胀情况，同时讨论一下FOMC可能采取哪些行动。从联储3月白皮书判断，经济增长仍保持紧缩所需的良好态势。尽管消费者数据明显呈现下降迹象（零售销售、核心耐用品、NAHB全美建筑商协会指数均下降），但劳动力市场仍保持稳健，说明个人消费陷入困境的可能性不大，第二季度增长率年率预期3-4%。06年下半年前景主要依赖于房市情况，主要体现在雇佣状况及消费水平两方面上，由于不动产发展明显放慢（至少最近5个月如此），所以目前对于房市崩溃的担心是完全不必要的。综上所述，说明个人消费目前只是由之前难以维持的较高水平下调，暗示美联储紧缩正在起作用。通过权衡经济增长及通胀水平，可以预期到5月10日为止联储仍有两次加息，之后将由数据决定未来利率水平，进入下半年可能暂停紧缩政策。   再看方程式另一端通货膨胀水平。近期物价仍呈现稳定迹象，物价压力至少核心物价压力得到较好抑制。然而近几周石油价格上涨，目前尚不清楚联储对石油涨价的看法，可能只被视作短期市场现象，夏季即有望消退。另外，第二轮能源价格上扬开始对市场造成影响，而自去年夏末创出高油价以来这一问题基本不存在。上周消费者物价指数（及1月）显示第二轮至少被认为有向上的影响。尽管只有两个月的数据，但却足以导致联储的警觉及向紧缩政策倾斜，至少应有两次继续加息?的可能。 两者综合考虑，预期未来还有两次加息。虽然通胀水平支持继续加息，但联储担心之后如刹车过猛可能不利于经济增长。为防止“软着陆”现象，所以两次加息后有可能保持一段时间的稳定货币政策。   市场参与者需要弄清楚的是有关联储意向的措辞，在准备继续加息的同时言语上并不惊动市场，说明联储正在改变对于通胀压力不再得到抑制的看法。预计FOMC将在发言中强调美国经济基本保持良好态势，但同时指出货币政策还需要“优化”，以预防由于经济增长混乱而导致的物价压力。FOMC可能再次使用“依赖数据”的字眼对“优化”进行支持。因此，联储有望于5月10日再次加息，但同时暗示市场这将是稳步加息轮的最后一次加息。   市场如何理解联储的发言明显对本周USD的命运起到至关重要的作用。除本周以外另外的加息前景将对USD形成支撑，但将USD带出近期区间的可能不大。“依赖数据”也对突破不利，因为市场几乎对所有的数据都有过分的反应，如果下一数据点显示相反迹象，则有望导致USD大幅反转。鉴于联储目前的姿态，5月以前依靠货币政策让市场突破近期区间的可能性不大。 将目光转向市场其它关注面， 最值得注意的是本周中期日本机构投资兴趣的回归。高利率货币有望反弹，特别是AUD及NZD，而JPY倾向于下跌， 特别是JPY交叉盘。鉴于经济满意度趋于稳定及欧元区上几周经济增长良好，欧洲央行官员可能有一些中性论调，说明欧洲央行下一次紧缩政策将延迟到春末夏初。   基于对FOMC发言及日本机构投资者回归市场的分析，本周预期USD总体看涨。重要技术位在美指日图91.00突破位，该位置代表了自去年11月高位以来的趋势线阻力位，如果JPY交叉盘如期下跌，则这一位置将很难突破，因为如果JPY相对于USD卖空， 则EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD及 NZD均相对于USD将被买进。由于美指占欧洲货币加权的80%，所以即使USD/JPY重试119.00甚至突破，美指也无法上行突破。 JPY的悲观预期来自于中国货币政策的调整及中国胡锦涛主席的重要访问。

	好长啊。 看澳、纽的样子，不像会反弹。有减息预期呀。

	好啊

	谢分析

	Monday, March 27, 2006 9: 30 AM EST The story of a range-bound Dollar continues into the beginning of this last week in March as the Fed begins the first of a two day FOMC meeting with a likely outcome of another 25 bps hike. The range-bound story told by the major'sdaily charts continues with lower highs and higher lows confining price to a relatively confined area. Tradable volatility will most likely return upon the break of these consolidation patterns.

	As I mentioned last week, we need to look away from the Dollar pairs for profitable opportunities. EURGPB recently broke from daily trendline resistance at 0.6875 and is looking to test a weekly consolidation pattern of its own with at 0.6975. We look to buy the pullback to the former trendline resistance point for a ride up to that weekly resistance at 0.6975.   The 4-hour EURGBP chart is in a Gartley formation which illustrates a specific Fibonacci relation between the 4 separate legs of the pattern to arrive a buy point of 0.6865-70. Stops should be below 0.6850 with an initial target of the .618 Ret of A-D at 0.6915.

	焦点关注 为期两天的美联储会议自今日开始，日图EURUSD, USDJPY呈现盘整 EURGBP日图突破阻力0.6875，周图 0.6975为下一阻力 美东时间3月27日，9：30 AM，周一（即北京时间3月27日 22：30） 美联储为期两天的FOMC会议于今天开始，有望继续加息25点，本周即3月的最后一周开始USD继续维持区间状态。区间状态在日图上显现为最高价不断降低，而最低价不段上升，价格局限在很小的范围内。交易量有望于这些区间形态被突破时恢复。   正如上周所说，我们需要把目光由USD转向其他货币对以寻求赢利机会。EURGPB近期突破日图趋势线阻力位0.6875，有望试探0.6975.可在价格回落至之前趋势线阻力位时做多EUR，期待上涨至周图阻力0.6975. 4小时图EURGBP呈现Gartley形态，展示了构成图形的4个支架之间的一种特殊的黄金分割关系。可在0.6865-70买进EUR，止损于0.6850下，初步目标在A-D的.618回调位即0.6915.

	Posted 3/27/06 1200EST NZD/USD: Kiwi is completing a parabolic decline that began in February but clearly intensified in March. The acceleration lower has become essentially vertical, which typically results in a final spike low followed by a reversal. The most recent thrust below 0.6200 may represent this final spike or there may still be one more push to come, but prices are also approaching a significant psychological level (0.6000) which also coincides with actual technical support: daily and weekly trendline support from the lows seen back in late 2001/early 2002. The daily charts place this support level at 0.6000 and the weekly charts place the level slightly higher at 0.6050. The background to Kiwi's decline is signficant in what it suggests for the potential for a rebound. The RBNZ has been unusually explicit in trying to talk down its currency and has even taken steps to limit the issuance of 'Uridashi' bonds, NZD-denominated bonds issued by Japanese institutions, which were seen to be fueling unwanted demand for Kiwi. As well, Japanese institutions were active in the NZD/JPY carry trade (NZD base rates 5.75% vs. JPY base rates of 0.2%), and the end of the Japanese fiscal year at the end of March led to liquidations of the long NZD positions. This Japanese institutional selling depressed an already weak NZD market and likely accounted for a significant amount of the weakness seen in March. When the new Japanese fiscal year begins on April 1 (possibly as soon as Tokyo trading on 3/30 when the value date will be April 3) the same Japanese institutions that have been selling Kiwi are very likely to return to buying NZD based on the continued yield pick-up. Japanese financial institutions (insurance companies that sell annuities, pension fund managers, and government retirement programs) are desperate for yield enhancement in the face of still negligible Japanese rates. On the interest outlook, while the NZ economy certainly could stand a rate cut and markets are actively speculating over one later this year, the RBNZ has indicated that a rate cut is unlikely this year. This suggests that even if the RBNZ changes its stance, which it may very well do, multiple rate cuts do not seem very likely, and Kiwi rates should still be relatively high compared to JPY and EUR. This week's strategy will focus on establishing Kiwi longs on further weakness, looking to buy 50% of a position at 0.6050 (just 15 points from current levels at 0.6065) with the remaining 50% at 0.5980, just below key 0.6000 psychological and daily trendline support (I expect stop loss orders to be located at 0.6000 and want to use the resultant downdraft to buy at a slightly better level.) Stop loss for the resulting position is at 0.5950 or a daily close below 0.6000, whcihever comes first. The upside outlook begins to improve on a daily close above 0.6120 and a base is confirmed with a daily close over 0.6200, with an upside acceleration favored once over 0.6250 parabolic SAR (stop-and-reverse) resistance. Assuming we bottom around current levels, the upside objectives are between 0.6320 and 0.6450 initially.

	这不是佳盛的汇评吗?反盗版!!!!