轻松学会判断经济数据

	外汇市场通常对有一些国家定期公布的经济数据很敏感，有些数据甚至会导致某些货币短期走势逆转。但有些外汇投资者对此不太了解，公布数据时不知道是利好还是利空。经过长期的实践和摸索，在经济数据对汇市的影响方面，总结了一些规律，谨供参考。 影响外汇行情的因素主要有以下5个方面： 国际收支： 国际收支是一国在一定时期内(通常是一年内)与外国的全部经济交易发生的收支总额，这是一国与其它各国之间经济交往的记录。 通货膨胀差异： 通货膨胀是指一般价格水平的持续、普遍上升。国内外通货膨胀的差异是决定汇率长期趋势的主导因素，在不兑现的信用货币条件下，两国之间的比率，是由各自所代表的价值决定的。如果一国通货膨胀高于他国，该国货币在外汇市场上就会趋于贬值；反之，就会趋于升值。 利率： “利息率”的简称，是一定时期内利息额对借贷本金之比。我们需要关注各国利率政策的制定及利率的波动。 市场预期： 国际金融市场的游资数额巨大，这些游资对世界各国的政治、军事、经济状况具有高度敏感性，由此产生的预期支配着游资的流动方向，对外汇市场形成巨大冲击，预期因素是短期内影响外汇市场的最主要因素。 货币管理当局的干预： 各国货币当局为了使汇率维持在政府所期望的水平上，会对外汇市场进行直接干预，以改变外汇市场的供求状况，这种干预虽然不能从根本上改变汇率的长期趋势，但对外汇的短期走势仍有重要影响。 下面列出3个比较重要的经济数据，数据的好坏足可以导致汇率的变化。 失业率： 是代表经济发展好坏的标志。失业率上升，意味着经济增长受阻；反之，则意味着经济发展势头良好。 消费物价指数： 主要反映消费者支付商品或劳务的价格变化情况。如果CPI大幅度上升，从短期看，有助于利率上升，从而支持汇价坚挺；从长期看，实质上是通货贬值。 消费者消费信心指数： 是指消费者消费愿望的表示，指数增加，表示消费者乐意支出，对经济增长是利好的，汇率上升；反之，则对经济增长不利，汇率下降。

	你虽在"外国",也是我们中国人的种,大家就不见外了,哈,顶一个.

	原帖由 phangson 于 30/4/2006 03:19 PM 发表 你虽在"外国",也是我们中国人的种,大家就不见外了,哈,顶一个. 是啊, 祖宗都是从中国飘洋过海来的, 都是炎黄子孙的后裔啊!

	HOHO~~  顶了

	EUR/USD BUY if the U.S. securities markets are to continue in a bear market and the Euro is going to go up against the U.S. Dollar. SELL if you expect Wall Street to recover and the U.S. Dollar to climb against the Euro. USD/JPY BUY if you expect the Yen is about to be weakened in support of Japanese trade. SELL if Japanese equity is leaving the U.S. financial markets to make stronger investments at home. GBP/USD BUY if growth in the U.K. will continue to lead G7 nations. SELL if you believe the British are about to adopt the Euro, expecting the Pound to weaken against the U.S. Dollar as it is devalued in anticipation of the merger. USD/CHF BUY if you think that the impact of international instability is overvalued. SELL if you believe that conservative investors will be seeking out traditional havens such as Switzerland as a hedge against weakness in the U.S. economy. EUR/CHF BUY if you expect that the Swiss government to devalue the currency to accelerate exports to Europe. SELL if inflation takes hold in Germany and France, increasing the value of the Swiss Franc against the Euro. AUD/USD BUY if world commodity prices are going to boost the commodity-based export market in Australia. SELL if the Australian economy shows signs of recession or unfavorable trade imbalances are emerging. USD/CAD BUY if the US economy is going to rebound faster than Canada. SELL if the Canadian Dollar is fundamentally undervalued against the U.S. Dollar. NZD/USD BUY if you think the notoriety of the “Lord of the Rings” films will increase income from tourism. SELL if you expect international uncertainties to continue to depress the tourist industry. EUR/GBP BUY if you believe the U.K. is about to adopt the Euro, expecting the Pound to weaken as it is devalued prior to the merger. SELL if you believe that the U.K. economy will grow at a faster rate than the European Union as a whole. EUR/JPY BUY if the Japanese banking crisis is expected to worsen. SELL if you believe that Europe is going into recession, anticipating the Euro to fall against the Yen. GBP/JPY BUY if the Bank of England is going to raise interest rates. SELL if the Nikkei index is about to outperform the FTSE. CHF/JPY BUY if you believe that international instability will cause an oil price spike, impacting the import-dependent Japanese economy. SELL if you expect regional conflicts will result in lower oil prices, making Japanese markets more attractive than the conservative Swiss Franc. GBP/CHF BUY if you expect the Bank of England to raise rates. SELL if you believe the British are about adopt the Euro, anticipating a weaker Pound against the Swiss Franc as it is devalued in anticipation of the merger. EUR/AUD BUY if Australia is heading towards recession. SELL if you expect international commodity prices are going to increase dramatically.

	路过

	thanks for the informations

	我想美元不暴跌的.各国政府中央银行.才不想........?

	学习中，顶