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转一帖,能看懂的就看吧,不做翻译了。。。
关于EUR:
well, the next move is pretty obvious if you have been watching the market moves after the past Benarke speeches.
The trend for Euro and Equities is still in place, nothing has changed. The scare tactics by the homeland department, the Japan nuclear leak do not change the fact that the global market is flushed with liquidity.
In fact, we are drawing closer to greater liquidity, when the Chinese government would release the next batch of USD into the market.
Perhaps, I say perhaps, tonight we see a pullback in Euro, S&P, DJ ahead of option expiry (when pple takes profit or cut losses). However, we definitelywould see the stock market rallying with DJ heading for 15,000 and S&P towards 1600. Implication is that USD Index would goes lower into 79++. However not a crisis. As the Fed has measures in place to support the USD, and USD is still in demand for trade, etc.
Would expect a pull back from 1.3800 towards 1.3650, and then a rally next week into 1.4000.
However would not rule out a immediate break above 1.3800 into 1.3900 within this week, when the USD bull short covers.
As long as the Equities bull trend is in place, USD is bound to slowly depreciate.
Whatever BEN says, the market has decided what to do: Flush out the longs and start the next leg of rally in Equities and Euro, GBP. Expect JPY to depreciate into 124 to fuel the rally in Equities/Euro/GBP.
By now, pple should realise that BEN is a academic, a market follower, not setter. |  |  |  |  |
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