:lol:
Dollar:Watch Non-Manufacturing ISM and ADP for Clues on Non-Farm Payrolls
Unsurprisingly, the markets have been extremely quiet with US traders off celebrating Independence Day.There has been little action in the foreign exchange market with the dollar strengthening only slightly against the British Pound and Japanese Yen, and weakening slightly against the Euro and commodity currencies.Although the interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and Bank of England should be the most market moving events tomorrow, traders will also be looking closely at the Service Sector ISM and Challenger layoff reports as well as the ADP Employment survey.With many US traders taking the remainder of the week off, we could see more than usual volatility from this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.Unlike the manufacturing sector, the expansion in the service sector is expected to slow but having reached the highest level in more than a year last month, even a small dip leaves service sector activity at a lofty level.Unless we get a very hawkish outcome from the ECB and BoE meetings, further dollar weakness should be limited because the inflationary pressures are far more pressing at the moment than growth concerns.Oil prices continue to remain above $70 a barrel while stock prices refuse to fall. Since the beginning of the year, crude prices have increased over 40 percent and if it continues to rise, we could see a sharp jump in both headline and core prices.For more on the ramification of $70 oil for the currency market, see our Special Report.The Federal Reserve will only shift away from their hawkish monetary policy bias by seriously considering lowering interest rates when job growth falls below 100k. If companies stop hiring, then the US economy is in serious trouble. That is why payrolls going forward will be extremely important because the stability of the housing market is hanging by a thread.
Strong Euro Will Play a Role in ECB Policy
Having just raised interest rates last month, the European Central Bank is expected to make no alterations to monetary policy tomorrow.Although this means that the 7:45am EST announcement will be a non-event, the 8:30am EST press conference could be very market moving.As usual, central bank President Trichet will be shedding more light on what they plan to do with interest rates in the months ahead.Like the UK, the Eurozone faces inflationary pressures that warrant higher interest rates, but the strong level of the Euro may give the central bank the flexibility to wait until after the summer to raise rates.They may not want to risk sending the EUR/USD to 1.40 by raising rates prematurely when the strong currency will automatically help to reduce inflationary pressure. This morning’s Eurozone data was mixed.Eurozone service sector PMI was stronger than expected in the month of June which combined with the strong manufacturing data, is very encouraging.Retail sales however fell short of expectations, but that was expected given weakness in German consumption.
[ 本帖最后由 ForexGG 于 2007-7-4 16:26 编辑 ]
支持 赞同;) ;) ;)
睡不着觉了。起来看盘。。。
OO真没劲，打掉1.3650的止损後，未借力上行，倒在ECB之前有获利盘平仓出来。。。
继续观察。。。
如果收盘在1.3630之下，这里的排列组合还是很不错的。。。:cool:
Either way， it is likely to break out tonight。。。if not, tomorrow will definitely be。。。
[ 本帖最后由 ForexGG 于 2007-7-5 06:59 编辑 ]
It's looking even better now, waiting for 10:00 data to confirm。。。:D
EUR/USD: Let The Stop Hunt Begin
London, July 5.
EUR/USD has eased into the 1.3590"s in the wake of the better than expected ISM non-manf. data. Downside stops are now expected to be targeted if follow-through is generated and more stop orders are said to sit below 1.3585 support, around and below 1.3580.
小心上下打止损吆，，，:cool:
[ 本帖最后由 ForexGG 于 2007-7-5 09:11 编辑 ]
EUR/USD: Weighed Down By US Payroll Expectations
Sydney, July 6:
Exactly one year ago on July 5 2006, the market was quite excited by the prospects for US non-farm payroll data after the ADP report showed a gain of 368K. US Treasury prices slid lower (yields higher) and the EUR/USD slid from 1.2840 to 1.2705 after the ADP report as expectation rose that the US non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday, July 7, 2006 would come in much stronger than the 180K expected by economists surveyed before the ADP release. Analysts scrambled to change their forecasts after the ADP release and the market whispers were for a number in excess of 200K.
The market was extremely disappointed on the release of the US non-farm payroll data on Friday, July 7, 2006, as the number came in well below forecasts at 121 K leading to headlines the next day that the US might be heading into stagflation. Yesterday in the US, Treasury prices sold off and the EUR/USD eased after the ADP job report showed a rise of 150 K leading to the market looking for a much stronger that the 130 K US job number to be released later today. If you were wondering why the overnight reports had a familiar ring to them, now you know why.
[ 本帖最后由 ForexGG 于 2007-7-5 22:13 编辑 ]
EUR/USD: Almunia Comments Keep Pressure On Euro
London, July 6.
Into the European/US crossover and comments from the EU"s Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner have hit the screens. Almunia is reported to have said in Spain that he was worried about the possible future effect of Euro strength but that so far it had not harmed the EZ economy. He is also being quoted as suggesting that FX rates must remain flexible given the risk of a strong Euro.
EUR/USD continues to work lower in the wake of the comments with bids still seen into the 1.3575/80 area that should prop spot on dips ahead of the 12:30 GMT release of the US Employment report.
欧元几天了，都没突破区间，实在是闷！就看今天了。。。
Dealers怕前高处1.3700的期权，而1.3575还有买盘，之下止损盘。。。
8：30分，若美国数据好，则下1.3565-1.3530-1.3520。。。数据不好，仍旧趋向1.3660。回来後，还是震荡。。。
简直太明显了，双方都不敢乱动，都在等今天的非农（其实下1.3575简直易如反掌，只是空头犹豫不定，到位就先平仓，所以。。另外，多头在此位也很弱）。。。
历史会重演吗？
我们拭目以待！:time:
[ 本帖最后由 ForexGG 于 2007-7-6 07:27 编辑 ]
虽然美国数据好于预期，但市场还是不想做空欧元。。。郁闷！:mad:
上面差5点，下面差3点，都不能成交。。。极度:( 要不都赚翻啦。。。:cry:
基金老大们，一个劲地喊，怎么美国数据变好啦？我们不想多美元啊。。。郁闷。。。
散户们讲：我们要把mm多到底。。。:)
[ 本帖最后由 ForexGG 于 2007-7-6 07:48 编辑 ]