汇市展望与交易策略[0327--0331]

	楼主不厚道呀，，转载来自forex里的策略。。。

	做研究学习用的，不是商业目的，不涉及知识产权保护的问题！

	原帖由 拜仁慕尼黑13 于 2006-3-28 15:42 发表 这不是佳盛的汇评吗?反盗版!!!! 我不是说了转载了啊，我没写哪里的是怕违反论坛规矩 因为它们的图有时候蛮准，可供大家参考

	焦点关注 为期两天的美联储会议自今日开始，日图EURUSD, USDJPY呈现盘整 EURGBP日图突破阻力0.6875，周图 0.6975为下一阻力 Tuesday, March 28, 2006 8:30 AM EST Here we are on this highly anticipated March FOMC meeting where Mr. Bernanke and company are widely expected to increase the overnight borrowing rate by another 25 bps. Expect price action to whippy and directionless heading into the 2:15 pm EST announcement. The Euro products were firmly bid in overnight sessions as positive Eurozone economic data hit the tape sending our bullish Gartley EURGBP pattern to within 5 points of our initial target. Long trades where taken from the 0.6870-65 level which wound up being the dead low and price has advanced some 35 points, at $18 dollars per point, since entry. The most compelling feature of this chart which I failed to mention yesterday is the symmetry on the 240 min chart of measured move AB=CD in not only price, but in time. Leg AB and CD both took 34 bars to complete while leg X-A took 55 bars to complete. Does anybody know the relevance of the number 34 and 55? They are the 9th and10th members of the Fibonacci number sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89.) For a quick review if you divide any number in Fib sequence by the previous you will find the divine ratio, Phi, or 1.618. And as our loyal readers know, 1.618 has been the staple of my report which began 12 months ago. Yes, that's right, we are on our 1 year anniversary here at Strategy of the Day which is exactly why I am torturing you like this. It is time to push our analysis ahead of traditional retracements and projections and to the next level advanced Fibonacci patterns.

	The Gartley pattern is the first of 4 advanced Fib patterns that I will be introducing you to over the next 3 months. The Gartley pattern was introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book Profits in the Stock Market, published in 1935. The Gartley takes into account 4 price legs and finds 5 specified Fibonacci relationships between all 4 legs. The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are constructed as such:

	The most fundamental and vital components in the Gartley are the two legs shown on the EURUSD chart below. Leg X-A is the primary leg that begins the pattern. The retracement in leg X-A should end between retracements 61.8% and 78.6%. The second is the measured move AB=CD, or 1.0 Fib projection, that ends very near to the X-A retracement. You are looking for symmetry in terms of both time and price for measure move AB-CD. If leg AB took 15 bars to travel 109 pips, expect leg CD to travel the approximately the same way which again finds retracement resistance from Leg XA. It might seem confusing at first, but if you study the pattern and search the charts long enough, I promise they will immediately leap out of the chart at you.

	There is a beautiful bearish Gartley forming on the 90 min EURUSD chart that finds resistance at 1.2100-10. I am a little cautious to play this pre-Fed because the 14 bar measured moved projects the 109 point move to end at 7:30 pm EST tonight, or pre-Asia. If we find price hovering at this level tonight, let's look to be short EURUSD with stops above 1.2125 targeting 1.2020 on the initial piece.

	好分析

	焦点关注 今天是“今日交易策略”开张一周年纪念 昨日低价买进EURGBP 高级黄金分割图形被突破 美东时间3月28日，8：30 AM，周二（即北京时间3月28日 21：30） 现在正期待3月美联储公开市场委员会FOMC会议结果，市场广泛预期会上美联储主席伯南克将宣布再次加息25点。因此美东时间2：15PM（即北京时间3/29 3：15 AM）宣布结果以前市场将比较安静。鉴于欧元区乐观的经济数据，EUR买盘持好，EURGBP的牛市Gartley形态离初步目标仅5点之差。曾在0.6870-65建多头仓，价格上涨35点。图表上 昨日未曾注意4小时图上AB=CD不仅价格相同，而且时间也相同。AB与CD均由34根棒组成，而X-A由55根棒组成。不知道是否有人清楚34与55这两个数字之间的联系？它们是黄金分割数列的第9及第10位数1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89.) 将相邻两个数字相除所得的商约等于1.618。忠实的读者可能会发现，过去的一年里“今日交易策略”常常用到1.618这个数值。的确今天是“今日交易策略”开张一周年纪念，现在已经是将分析水平由传统的回调及预测上升到另一高度：高级黄金分割图形的时候了。