华尔街日报汇市综述
WALL STREET 汇市分析 北京时间2006年01月31日07:35美元小幅走强，投资者等待Fed利率决定
美元兑多数主要货币周一小幅走强，尽管投资者等待周二的美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)会议，使交投受到抑制。
前夜交易中美元小幅走强，延续了上周五的显著上涨走势。但纽约交易时段，美元在异常狭窄区间内波动。即使强劲的美国经济数据也未能提振美元，因为投资者在Fed公布利率决定前不愿建立新的头寸。
市场广泛预计，Fed周二将加息25个基点，将联邦基金目标利率上调至4.50%。本次会议将是Fed主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)退休前的最后一次会议。但市场急于了解Fed是否会暗示此次加息将是目前加息周期中的最后一次。
多数分析师认为，Fed将为未来进一步加息保留余地，因为本•贝南克(Ben Bernanke)将出任Fed下届主席。
RBS Greenwich Capital国际策略部门主管Alan Ruskin表示，自Fed于2004年6月份开始加息以来，美元兑欧元在13次加息的当日仅有4次走强，加息消息公布时的美元抛售正是“新闻正式发布时卖出”的典型例证。
Ruskin在一封电子邮件中称，FOMC在政策声明中的措辞可能倾向于温和立场，但对美元造成的任何不利影响都可能仅是暂时的。
前夜交易中，交投淡静，美元小幅走强，亚洲许多市场因中国农历新年而休市。 thanx
wsj
WALLSTREET 汇市分析 北京时间2006年01月31日16:44美元兑日圆窄幅波动，Fed会议即将召开
亚洲汇市周二，美元兑日圆汇率基本持平，日本进、出口商纷纷在月末进行帐户清算，还有许多投资者在急切等待美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)的会议结果。
欧元兑美元汇率亦持稳，尽管早些时候曾上升十分之一美分至1.2105美元。
一些交易员认为，促使欧元在亚洲交易时段短暂上涨的原因是，有消息称联合国(United Nations)一些重要成员国已同意将伊朗核问题提交安理会(Security Council)，而此举可能导致伊朗受到制裁。交易员称，这一消息增强了市场内有关西方国家和伊朗之间的对峙局面可能升级的观点。
但交易商表示，在联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee, 简称FOMC)预期中的加息决策公布前，美元人气总体依然向好。
东方汇理银行(Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank)的外汇部门负责人Takeshi Iba指出，从上周后期开始美元就受到投资者的青睐，在FOMC会议之前这一趋势没有变化。
由于市场已普遍预计Fed将把利率上调25个基点至4.50%，因此投资者将焦点转向了会后发布的政策声明，希望该声明能提供更多有关未来货币政策的线索。许多分析师预计，随著贝南克(Ben Bernanke)接替格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)担任Fed主席，Fed将为3月份再次加息留下余地。
摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase Bank)驻东京首席外汇策略师Tohru Sasaki表示，Fed决策者针对进一步加息前景的声明措辞可能会更加温和，由此将引发部分美元抛盘。4.50%左右的利率水平无疑位于Fed所谓的中性水平范围内，因此，他们可能将更加明确地暗示，下一步行动将取决于经济数据。中性利率既不会造成经济过热，也不会导致经济增长放缓。
但Sasaki补充称，任何这种美元抛盘都将是短暂的。他表示，市场已普遍意识到，3月份后的利率决策将由经济指标来决定。
一些交易员猜测，Fed决策者可能会改变声明措辞，允许声明有多种解读方式，从而赋予贝南克更大的决策空间。这样的话，美元可能不会出现大幅波动，因投资者或将选择离场观望，等待定于周五发布的美国就业数据，以期从中推测美国的利率前景。
冈三证券(Okasan Securities)外汇和衍生金融产品交易员Tsutomu Soma称，若Fed声明果真有所改变，则可能给以Fed新主席贝南克制定政策的自主权。因此，他表示，市场可能不得不等待贝南克下个月在国会发表的证言，以从中寻找更多线索。
IF NO IMPLYMENT,THEN WHAT?
REUTERS FOREX-Dollar slips before Fed rate meetingTue Jan 31, 2006 6:31 AM ET
By Katie Hunt
LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The dollar eased against the euro and the yen on Tuesday, with dealers adjusting positions before an expected rise in U.S. interest rates amid jitters over monetary policy after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan retires.
But currencies were still confined to narrow ranges before the Federal Reserve policy meeting, with traders reluctant to take fresh positions before the central bank issues its statement after the gathering, Greenspan's last at the helm after 18 years.
The U.S. central bank, which is widely expected to raise its funds rate to 4.5 percent from 4.25 percent, is due to start its meeting at 1400 GMT and issue its statement at 1915 GMT.
"The dollar may see some positional adjustment on the uncertainty of the contents of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement after the decision ... but 25 basis points is a done deal," said Kamal Sharma, currency strategist at Bank of America.
With data suggesting the U.S. economy has been humming along since the Fed's last meeting in December, the central bank will give itself room to raise rates again at the March meeting by keeping the statement's wording roughly the same, some traders say.
However, others said that the Fed could remove any forward-looking signals from the statement, providing Greenspan's successor Ben Bernanke with a clean slate.
"I don't think the market will push far before the FOMC statement. If they remove the sentence implying some further measured tightening then the dollar is at risk," said Gavin Friend, currency strategist at Commerzbank.
Euro zone data released on Tuesday painted a mixed picture for the currency bloc's economy. I DON‘T THINK IT MATTERS
matter
but i think it matters,because it does to me.everyday i read the reuters,wsj, saxo bank and gain capital's comments,i think it is very helpful to me,itouch the forex only three months,my demo acoount with 2000usd lossed to 1800 at first,then it growing and growing,now it is almost up to 3000usd which will portionally attribute to the comments above.you know i just play forex only 3 months totally.frankly,i admitted we must denpend on our
own judgement,but i stiil think the ananysis works to me. 谢谢 US Employment Costs Index (4Q)
US Consumer Confidence (Jan)
US Chicago PMI (Jan)
US FOMC Rate Decision (a hike of 25 bps. to 4.50% expected) and statement
President Bush's State of the Union Address (what will he say about Iran?)
ABC Consumer Confidence
US MBA Mortgage Applications
US Construction Spending
US Pending Home Sales
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid
US Total and Domestic Vehicle Sales
US Nonfarm Produtivity
US Unit Labor Costs
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
US Unemployment Rate
US Avg. Hourly Earnings
US Univ. of Michigan Confidence
US Factory Orders
US ISM Non-Manufacturing
US Consumer Credit
Euro-Zone Streak of Manufacturing PMI's
Euro-Zone Unemployument Rate
Euro-Zone ECB Rate Decision
Euro-Zone Retail Sales
Euro-Zone Streak of Retail PMI's
German Industrial Production
All in all: in this is a long list that could offer plenty of reasons for USD to go higher and a premium paid of 29 pips seems cheap for this collection of data.
[ 本帖最后由 grunge 于 2006-2-1 01:12 编辑 ] I ALSO READ
saxo bank and gain capital's comments
，
SOMETIMES THEY ARE ACCURATE，DESPITE THE FACT THAT THEY ARE MARKETMAKER。
BY THE WAY
WHAT IS wsj, ？