说吧!
WSJ北京时间2006年03月20日15:58亚洲汇市周一，在美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)全球交易时段发表讲话前，美国和欧洲对冲基金为锁定利润而抛出日圆，买进美元。
交易商表示，虽然在一系列疲弱美国经济数据的打击下，美元上周累计下跌近4日圆；但即便如此，许多市场人士仍未能提起对美元的兴趣，因为市场人士对美国将进一步加息的预期逐渐减弱。
不过交易商表示，由于Fed主席贝南克发表讲话在即，一些海外对冲基金对于利率预期开始变得更为谨慎，并减持手头的日圆头寸。贝南克定于格林威治时间周一2400发表讲话。
瑞穗实业银行(Mizuho Corporate Bank)高级副总裁Masaki Fukui表示，美元总体上仍呈下跌走势，但起决定作用的是贝南克将在讲话中采取何种政策立场。
交易商称，由于美国和欧洲对冲基金为锁定利润而卖出欧元，欧元兑美元汇率回吐了上周五的部分涨幅。
但一些分析师称，欧元兑美可能将继续上涨，该汇率或将在未来几周试探1.2300美元。
三菱东京UFJ银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ)外汇分析师Kikuko Takeda表示，由于最近欧洲央行(European Central Bank)政策委员会成员就货币政策发表的讲话非常偏向紧缩立场，所以他们预计欧元仍有继续上涨的空间。
[ 本帖最后由 phangson 于 2006-3-20 19:13 编辑 ]
讲话已出来,涨跌我难辩
WSJ 北京时间2006年03月21日08:03纽约汇市周一尾盘，美元兑欧元上涨，市场将密切关注美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)主席本•贝南克(Ben Bernanke)定于今晚发表的演讲，以从中寻找Fed对今后利率政策安排的线索。
纽约汇市周一尾盘，欧元兑1.2167美元，纽约汇市上周五尾盘为1.2195美元。
由于左右市场的重大数据寥寥无几，市场将密切关注贝南克讲话，以观察这位Fed主席是否会在美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下周开会做出利率决定前透露任何政策信号。投资者现正努力判断Fed是否打算将利率上调至5%或超过5%。
欧洲央行(European Central Bank)行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)的讲话并没有帮助欧元摆脱上周五以来的波动区间。特里谢周一通过法国电视频道表示，欧洲央行将采取措施，把欧元区通货膨胀率控制在2%以下。
在去年12月1日和今年3月2日分别加息25个基点之后，欧洲央行的主要利率目前处于2.5%的水平。近来，市场有关该央行可能将利率调升至3.5%的预期日益升温，受此影响，欧元兑美元汇率大幅上扬。
与此同时，人民币兑美元周一收盘再创新高，美国国会(Congress)两名一直不遗余力批评中国外汇政策的参议员即将展开访华之旅。美元周一连续第三个交易日兑人民币触及新低。
在中国的自动撮合交易系统，美元收于人民币8.0241元，创下去年7月21日人民币币值重估以来的最低收盘水平，盘中交易区间为人民币8.0247-8.0232元。美元上周五收于人民币8.0316元。
许多人认为，美国参议员Charles Schumer和Lindsey Graham本周访华的消息是促使人民币升值的一个因素。这两位参议员此前联合提出一项提案：如果中国政府不进一步增加人民币汇率弹性，美国可能立法对所有从中国进口的商品征收27.5%的关税。
CORE
WSJ 北京时间2006年03月22日08:13纽约汇市周二尾盘美元全线走高，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)前夜发表的讲话以及显示通货膨胀压力上升的美国2月份生产者价格指数报告提振了美元人气。
美元买盘推动欧元跌破关键的1.2100美元。纽约汇市周二尾盘，欧元兑1.2086美元，低于纽约汇市周一尾盘的1.2167美元。
美元自前夜开始上涨，原因在于贝南克在纽约一次演讲中保留了Fed进一步加息的可能性。
纽约汇市周二早盘，美元一度因美国2月份生产者价格指数(PPI)降幅超过预期而下跌，但在有关核心生产者价格指数升幅超过预期的消息被市场消化后，美元开始反弹。
经季节因素调整后，美国2月份生产者价格指数(PPI)下降1.4%，下降幅度远大约市场此前预期的0.3%降幅；不包括食品和能源的核心PPI上升0.3%，高于经济学家此前预计的0.1%升幅。
尽管总体消费物价仍基本处于控制之中，但对于市场观察人士来说，核心PPI的加速上升可能反映美国核心通货膨胀上升的压力依然存在。
JPMorgan Private Bank驻纽约的全球外汇主管Anton Pil表示，尽管制造商所面临的价格上涨压力尚未波及到消费层面，但这对于通货膨胀始终会构成威胁。
他表示，有鉴于此，加之Fed一直承诺将根据未来经济数据来决定加息步伐，均表明Fed将继续上调利率。
美国加息前景一直是支持美元近几个月走势的一项主要因素，并在一定程度上使市场忽略了经常项目赤字和欧元区及日本进一步紧缩货币政策前景对美元产生的负面影响。
Investors Bank and Trust驻波士顿的高级外汇策略师Tim Mazanec称，PPI数据提振了贝南克周一晚间在纽约发表演讲后所激发的美元看涨人气。贝南克表示，收益率曲线的趋平可能由全球储蓄过高等多种因素造成，并不意味著美国经济增长即将放缓。
贝南克此番讲话基本上对利率前景采取了一种模棱两可的态度，但市场普遍将此解读为对美国经济的乐观评论。此外，由于贝南克反复表示，收益率曲线趋平这一独特现象可能促使Fed提高加息力度，贝南克的讲话也被市场视为美元的利好因素。
联邦储备委员会公开市场委员会(FOMC)将在下周召开会议。Pil称，虽然贝南克没有在演讲中就此发出明确的政策信号，但其评论仍有助于美元走高。
Pil称，贝南克明确表示，加息仍是调控通货膨胀压力的主要政策工具。他补充说，尽管贝南克的讲话表明他对此依然持谨慎态度，但已明确表明Fed的加息进程仍在继续。 WSJ 北京时间2006年03月23日08:41
纽约汇市周三尾盘，欧元兑1.2076美元，周二尾盘为1.2086美元；
Brown Brothers Harriman驻纽约的外汇策略主管Marc Chandler表示，由于周三缺乏影响交易的消息或数据，投资者将注意力转向一些关键技术位。一些投资者试图推动汇率突破某些阻力位，以期触发市场进一步向著有利于他们的方向发展。
Chandler称，这并非出乎意料，表明汇率的波动更多是受头寸调整的影响，而非受基本面因素的影响。
在美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve,简称Fed)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)周一晚间发表讲话后，美元于周二曾全线走高，原因是许多投资者基于Fed将继续上调利率的预期开始重新建立美元头寸。
然而美元在周三市场上相对平稳的走势令一些交易员相信，在3月28日的下一次Fed政策会议召开前，汇市可能将采取谨慎观望策略，以等待Fed决策层届时更为清晰地阐述政策立场和意图。
与此同时，欧元在汇市欧洲交易时段承受压力，因此前公布的数据显示，欧元区1月份贸易逆差飙升至欧元区创立以来的最高水平。
欧元区1月份贸易逆差激增至创纪录的108亿欧元，远远高于上年同期的16亿欧元。2005年12月的贸易逆差修正为7亿欧元，修正前为9亿欧元。而经济学家此前对欧元区1月份贸易逆差的预期仅为12亿欧元。 WSJ 北京时间2006年03月24日07:22
纽约汇市周四尾盘美元飙升，此前公布的一份报告显示美国住宅市场强劲，投资者不断提高对联邦储备委员会(Fed)的决策者最终将把利率上调至何种水平的预期。
欧元兑美元下跌大约1美分，跌破关键的1.20美元。
纽约汇市周四尾盘，欧元兑1.1972美元，低于纽约汇市周三尾盘的1.2076美元。
亚洲汇市和欧洲汇市时段，美元交投淡静。在美国公布远远好于预期的2月份成屋销售数据之后，美元在纽约汇市早盘时段开始大幅走高。
美国2月份成屋销量折合成年率为691万套，较1月份修正后的657万套上升了5.2%；市场此前预计，2月份成屋销量折合成年率降至650万套。
由于市场当前对美国发布的任何数据都极为关注，以期从中寻求反映美国经济状况和Fed决策者最终将把利率上调至何种水平的线索，因此，强劲的成屋销售数据推动美元走高。市场预计Fed的政策委员会下周将把隔夜拆款利率上调25个基点，至4.75%，但最近数月，市场对此后Fed加息步伐的预期波动较大。
Fed已明确声明，任何利率决定都将取决于经济数据。因此，周四公布的强劲成屋数据促使投资者买进美元。
Calyon Corporate & Investment Bank驻伦敦的全球外汇研究主管Mitul Kotecha称，由于市场此前预计该数据将表现低迷，因此当公布数据强于预期后，美元因投资者打消顾虑而走高。
美国国债收益率周四强劲上涨，这表明市场预计Fed将在下周二之后再度加息的乐观心态。2年期美国国债收益率上涨3个基点，至4.77%；10年期美国国债收益率上涨4个基点，至4.74%。
Kotecha称，住宅市场数据近期备受关注，原因是Fed官员已经表示，担心住宅市场增长放缓可能使美国经济承受风险。
其他反映美国经济的利好消息还包括美国截至3月18日当周的首次申请失业救济人数报告。报告显示，当周首次申请失业救济人数下降11,000人，至302,000人。市场此前的预期为降至310,000人。 WSJ北京时间2006年03月25日07:41
纽约汇市周五尾盘，美元回落，抹去了周四的大部分涨幅，因投资者在联邦储备委员会(Fed)决策者下周二的会议前纷纷结清头寸。
亚洲和欧洲汇市交易时段，美元走势平淡。但纽约汇市阶段，在美国公布的2月份预售屋销量降幅远超过预期后，美元结束上涨，开始走低。许多交易员在美元开始走低之际获利回吐美元近期的涨幅，并减少手中的暴露头寸，以避免汇市下周因Fed决策者周二开会而出现波动的风险。
电子交易系统显示，纽约汇市周五尾盘，欧元兑1.2036美元，脱离了1.1953美元的盘中低点且高于纽约汇市周四尾盘的1.1972美元。
2月份预售屋销量大幅下降了10.5%，至108万套，创近9年以来的最大月度降幅，且为过去6个月以来第四次出现下降。1月份预售屋销量经修正后下降了5.3%。经济学家此前预计的2月份预售屋销量降幅仅为2.4%。
花旗集团(Citigroup)驻伦敦的首席外汇策略师Steven Saywell称，预售屋数据不利于人们对美国住宅市场的看法，特别是在周四公布强劲的成屋销售数据后美元大幅走高的情况下。
美国本周公布的乐观数据在一定程度上重新树立了市场对Fed将会在下周二的政策制定会议之后继续加息的信心。
预售屋数据公布之际，正是市场对Fed将把利率上调至何种水平倍感困惑、不安之时。就在两周前，由于市场人气一边倒地倾向预计Fed不会在下周二之后继续加息，美元遭到重挫。本周，由于市场对Fed维持加息步伐的预期再度升温，美元卷土重来。 The week outlook
The dollar recovered sharply this week, a bit sooner than I expected, as higher core PPI readings rekindled fears of further Fed tightening to combat inflation. The dollar received an added boost mid-week as US sales of existing homes in February posted a 5.2% gain vs. an expected 1% decline, marking the first rise in existing home sales since Aug. 2005. However, the existing home sales report was an aberration from a steady decline in the housing market and largely attributed to warmer weather in January facilitating purchases that closed in February. The underlying trend was reaffirmed by Friday’s 10% drop in February new home sales, a more concurrent report, that also saw the inventory of unsold homes rise to a record level. The inventory of unsold existing homes held steady at 5.3 months worth, the highest since August 1998, suggesting that despite February’s surge, overall demand continues to slow. The good news on the housing front is that the real estate market slowdown does not appear to be heading for a collapse, and this will have important implications for the outlook for the second half of 2006 & 2007.
The price action during the past week was suggestive of greatly reduced interest from major market participants, most notably Japanese institutions, which typically reduce market activities significantly into the close of the Japanese fiscal year (end of March). Market information also indicates the dollar’s sharp rally on Thursday was attributed to stop-loss buying of dollars from speculative shorts that went with the prior week’s dollar decline, as opposed to fresh dollar-buying from asset managers. In US dollar index terms, the dollar retraced 76.4% of the prior week’s sell-off by Thursday, and then retraced 38.2% of that move lower on Friday, suggesting Elliot wave traders had a good week. The week leading up to FOMC meetings frequently tends to be range-bound and, despite the volatility seen this week, that’s exactly what we got. The dollar index is closing at 90.00, exactly mid-way between the highs of 91.15 seen two weeks ago and lows at 88.85 seen last week. This sets the stage for a significant reaction following the FOMC’s rate decision and statement, one that is likely to see ‘real money’ flows return to the market and provoke a sustained move.
But before I begin suggesting that an end to the 2006 range is at hand, let’s first consider what the FOMC is likely to do, considering the growth and inflation sides of the equation. The growth side is on balance still a positive in terms of further tightening, judging by the Fed’s March Beige Book report. While some signs of consumer retrenchment are evident (lower retail sales, core durable goods, lower NAHB index), the labor market remains solid, suggesting private consumption is unlikely to go into a tailspin and suggests 2Q growth in the range of 3-4% annualized. The outlook for the second half of 2006 remains heavily dependent on the housing market, both in terms of employment and consumption, and while realty activity is definitely slowing (it has been for the last 5 months at least), fears of a collapse appear unfounded at the moment. Taken together, it suggests private consumption is only adjusting to lower levels from previously unsustainable high rates, implying the Fed’s tightening is having the desired effect. On balance, the growth side of the equation suggests two more rate hikes from the Fed by May 10, followed by a data-dependent pause going into the 2H 2006.
Turning to the inflation side of the equation, recent price gauges continue to depict steady and contained price pressures, at least in core terms. Oil prices have risen in recent weeks, though, and it’s unclear yet how the Fed will view this, but it seems likely it will be interpreted only as a short-term market-driven effect, likely to subside by the summer. Then there are the second round effects of higher energy prices, which have been noticeably absent since oil prices spiked late last summer. Last week’s PPI readings (and January’s too) suggest second round effects may finally be making themselves known, at least upstream. While it is only two months of data, it does give cause to the Fed to lean toward greater vigilance and further tightening, certainly two more ¼ point hikes at least.
Putting the two sides of the equation together, I maintain the view that two more ¼% rate hikes are in store. The inflation side of the equation potentially argues for more than two hikes, but the Fed then risks hitting the brakes too hard and upsetting the growth of the economy. To preserve a ‘soft-landing’ scenario, I think this argues for two additional hikes, followed by a potentially extended period of steady monetary policy.
The key for market participants will be how the Fed phrases its intentions, keeping the door open to additional hikes while not alarming markets with phraseology that suggests the Fed is just now changing its view that inflation pressures are no longer contained. I’m inclined to think the FOMC statement will highlight the underlying soundness of the US economy, but will suggest that additional ‘fine-tuning’ of monetary policy may be needed to prevent price pressures from disrupting future economic growth. The FOMC will likely re-use the ‘data-dependent’ theme to govern the ‘fine-tuning’ down the road. This allows the Fed to keep the door open to another rate hike on May 10, while effectively signaling to the market that that’s the end of the steady rate increases.
How the market interprets the Fed’s statement is obviously critical to the fate of the dollar next week. On balance, the prospect of an additional hike beyond next week should keep the dollar supported, but seems unlikely to propel it out of recent ranges. The ‘data-dependent’ theme is also troublesome for a break-out, since the markets have been over-reacting to nearly every data announcement, leading to sharp reversals when the next data point suggests the opposite. Given the Fed’s stance, it seems unlikely now that US monetary policy is going to take us out of recent ranges before May.
ECB officials may also provide increasingly neutral comments based on a leveling-off of economic sentiment and growth in the Eurozone over the last several weeks, suggesting the next ECB tightening will be postponed until late spring/early summer.
Given my outlook for the FOMC statement and the return of Japanese institutions, I favor a generally higher dollar next week. The key technical level will be a break over 91.00 on a daily close basis; this level represents daily trendline resistance dating back to the November 2005 highs. This level may prove difficult to break through if JPY selling on the crosses materializes as I expect, since this will mean that EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, & NZD will all be bought against the dollar, while the JPY will be sold against the dollar. Since the dollar index is 80% weighted to European currencies, it may not break higher, even though USD/JPY returns to test 119.00 and above. The risk to this JPY negative scenario comes from China currency adjustments and the impending visit of Chinese president Hu.
04:14pmNEXT WEEK : From the US, March Chicago PMI, Michigan sentiment, Feb PCE deflator and personal spending on Friday.
02:57pmNEXT WEEK : The FOMC begins its two-day meeting on Monday and will make its rate announcement the next day. The focus will be the statement that follows, with the market looking for an indication as to what to expect in the coming months. Despite that clearly being the highlight of the week, there is still key data from Europe to look out for
01:03pmBernanke told a Congressman in a follow-up letter to his testimony last month that the USD was likely to remain the invoice currency for oil. Consistent with past comments on the USD as a reserve currency
3/27 2000 US FOMC two day meeting begins
3/28 0800 Germany IFO business climate Mar 103.3 102.9
3/28 0800 Germany IFO current assessment Mar 101.9 102.0
3/28 0800 Germany IFO expectations survey Mar 104.8 104.0
3/28 1500 US Consumer confidence Mar 101.7 102.0
3/28 1500 US Richmond Fed index Mar 0.00 n/a
3/28 1915 US FOMC rate announcement 3/28 4.50% 4.75%
3/28 2200 US ABC consumer confidence w/e 3/27 -8 n/a
3/29 1200 US MBA mortgage applications 3/24 -1.6% n/a
3/29 1345 US Fed officials speak at payments conf.
3/30 0755 Germany Unemployment change Mar -5K -5K
3/30 1330 US GDP annualized 4Q-final 1.6% 1.7%
3/30 1330 US GDP price index 4Q-final 3.3% 3.3%
3/30 1330 US Personal consumption 4Q-final 1.2% n/a
3/30 1330 US Initial jobless claims w/e 3/25 302K 300K
3/30 1330 US Continuing claims w/e 3/18 2.472 mio n/a
3/30 1730 US Fed's Poole speaks at student invest. forum
3/30 1730 EC ECB's Trichet speaks
3/31 0600 Germany Retail sales YoY Feb 1.7% 1.5%
3/31 0600 Germany Retail sales MoM Feb 1.8% -0.4%
3/31 0830 EC ECB's Trichet speaks
3/31 0900 EC Eurozone industrial confidence Mar -2 -2
3/31 0900 EC Business climate indicator Mar 0.61 0.62
3/31 0900 EC Eurozone consumer confidence Mar -10 -10
3/31 0900 EC Eurozone CPI estimate YoY Mar 2.3% 2.2%
3/31 0900 EC Eurozone CPI estimate YoY Mar 2.3% 2.2%
3/31 1330 US Fed's Hoenig speaks on 2006 outlook
3/31 1330 US Personal income Feb 0.7% 0.4%
3/31 1330 US Personal spending Feb 0.9% 0.0%
3/31 1330 US PCE deflator YoY Feb 3.1% 2.9%
3/31 1330 US PCE core MoM Feb 0.2% 0.1%
3/31 1330 US PCE core YoY Feb 1.8% 1.7%
3/31 1445 US Univ. of Michigan consumer confidence Mar-final 86.7 87.0
3/31 1500 US Chicago purchasing managers index Mar 54.9 57.0
3/31 1500 US Factory orders Feb 1.6% 1.0%
[ 本帖最后由 phangson 于 2006-3-26 20:57 编辑 ] WSJ 北京时间2006年03月27日19:37
亚洲汇市周一，由于美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee, 简称FOMC)为期两天的会议于今天开始召开，许多市场人士都不愿意在FOMC声明发布前大举建立头寸。他们表示，FOMC的声明将更清楚地表明美国的政策取向。
市场普遍预计美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)将在本月的会议上加息25个基点，将利率上调至4.75%，但是，交易商表示，市场上有关美国利率紧缩周期即将结束的猜测日益盛行。
Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow总经理Masanobu Ishikawa表示，美国上周五发布的住宅数据令人失望，数据表明Fed可能在5月份以后停止加息，因而有必要关注Fed明日的声明，从中寻找新的线索。
与此同时，交易员表示，欧元兑日圆的下跌最初也曾推动欧元兑美元汇率走低，但是，由于市场有关Fed加息周期即将结束的感觉越来越强烈，亚洲银行交易商开始买进欧元，从而使欧元在后来的交易中抹去了跌幅，攀升至1.2060美元的高点。
Barclays Capital Japan首席外汇策略师Toru Umemoto认为，若Fed发表了立场更为温和的声明，欧元本周则将有望上探1.2200美元。 WSJ 北京时间2006年03月28日07:18
纽约汇市周一，美元兑欧元上扬。投资者静待美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)周二的利率决定和政策声明。
美元今日涨跌互见，因周二即将召开美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议。预计Fed将在此次会议上把基准利率上调25个基点，至4.75%。
此次会议将是Fed新任主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)主持召开的首次FOMC会议。市场在会议政策声明公布前紧张不安，投资者迫切希望从声明中发现有关未来利率走向的蛛丝马迹。
据电子交易系统显示，纽约汇市尾盘，欧元兑1.2012美元，低于上周五尾盘的1.2036美元。
市场仍像往常一样在FOMC会议声明前呈现出交投清淡的局面。美元确实促使欧元向1.2000美元的水平下挫，但最终在1.2010美元附近持稳。
FOMC statement
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4-3/4 percent.The slowing of the growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 seems largely to have reflected temporary or special factors. Economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace. As yet, the run-up in the prices of energy and other commodities appears to have had only a modest effect on core inflation, ongoing productivity gains have helped to hold the growth of unit labor costs in check, and inflation expectations remain contained. Still, possible increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated prices of energy and other commodities, have the potential to add to inflation pressures.
The Committee judges that some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives
WSJ北京时间2006年03月29日06:55
美元在周二尾盘大幅上扬，因美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)决定加息并暗示可能进一步紧缩政策。
美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee, 简称FOMC)如预期把联邦基金利率利率上调25个基点，至4.75%，自2004年6月份以来连续第15次以相同幅度加息。此次FOMC会议也是贝南克(Ben Bernanke)出任Fed主席以来主持的首次会议。
美元兑欧元曾在全球交易时段大部分时间中下跌，但在FOMC决定公布后，美元兑欧元迅速反弹至前交易日的水平。
纽约汇市尾盘，欧元兑1.2008美元，低于Fed决定宣布前的1.2069美元，以及周一尾盘的1.2012美元。
尽管FOMC的加息决定在普遍预期之中，但声明中有关可能需要进一步加息的内容还是让市场感到欣慰。
对美国加息的预期在近几个月来一直对美元汇率构成支撑。伴随FOMC决定的声明也一直受到市场的密切关注，希望可以从中发现未来货币政策以及紧缩周期结束的线索。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)驻纽约的全球市场经济学家Jens Nordvig表示，对于内容基本没有变化的FOMC声明而言，美元表现出了相对较大的反应。
他表示，声明本身并不是特别强硬，但一些市场人士曾预期声明内容将过于温和。而当事实并非如此时，市场开始买进美元。